The return of Jett Lawrence raises questions surrounding expectations, with the double 450MX champion sidelined for the past five months after sustaining a serious ankle/foot injury in late December. As the Pro Motocross opener draws closer, attention turns to whether he can immediately challenge for victory this weekend.

It was a topic we were also presented with at this time last year, with the Honda HRC Progressive phenom having exited the Monster Energy Supercross Championship with a torn ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) incurred at the fourth round of 450SX in Glendale. Lawrence answered with a resounding 1-1 at Fox Raceway and a second premier class title.

Now, 12 months later and we find ourselves in a similar situation, although this time does feel slightly different. We’ve so far seen a more reserved Lawrence and team, who have indicated that this injury – particularly the delicate talus fracture – has been a nuanced one to recover from and perhaps taken even longer than expected.

From the outside, it makes predictions almost impossible, because the calibre of Lawrence on a 450 outdoors has proven to be almost unbeatable. The 22-year-old has so far won 24 of a possible 27 overalls, which included a perfect season on debut in 2023, and has dominated the division since he arrived on the scene.

Image: Octopi Media.

In that breath, it’s reasonable to expect a 1-1 is well within his wheelhouse at Fox Raceway – which is a circuit he is undefeated at from an overall perspective in his eight visits to the Pala venue. In short, it’s hard to go against the younger Lawrence brother, with the numbers ultimately telling his story.

Back to his injury, considering time spent off the motorcycle, and the fact that the competition has inevitably improved, with riders like elder brother Hunter Lawrence, Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton, and premier class rookie Haiden Deegan perhaps presenting Jett’s biggest challenge yet. It is a lot to overcome, especially when everyone is gunning for you.

But in truth, with the winning rate that Lawrence boasts, the other riders have needed to lift their game, and so maybe what we will see this year is an even more consistent challenge for Jett, and not just a whitewash of moto and overall victories, which shapes the series somewhat more predictably beyond the opening couple of rounds.

Deegan’s name has been inserted directly into the 450MX conversation from the outset, and rightfully so, given his credentials as a double 250MX champion in his own right. His highly-anticipated debut generates a question within itself – can he emerge as the new alpha male in the category, as Jett did on his arrival?

Image: Octopi Media.

It’s undeniable that’s where Deegan is aiming – and he has said as much in his own words. This has perhaps created more excitement and anticipation across the board, as without the entry of the ultra-talented 20-year-old, maybe less of a spotlight shines on Jett’s return when the curtains open come Saturday.

A lot hinges on the upcoming opener this weekend, where it would seem that the stakes are higher than they’ve been in quite some time. Maybe even more than anytime in history beforehand. You sense that riders can smell blood in the water with Jett’s vulnerability, and they are ready to strike.

This summer in 450MX is going to be intriguing for more reasons than Lawrence vs Deegan and the former champions, too, since four-time world champion Jorge Prado is much-improved, while current MXGP World Championship leader Lucas Coenen is set to join the fray come Thunder Valley for select appearances.

Hunter is coming off a tough loss in 450SX, with an outdoor title the perfect antidote to ease the sting, while Deegan already has a point to prove, Sexton would love to – has to? – return to the front of the pack week in and week out, plus Tomac will aim at a fifth title, which are all narratives that hype the series up substantially.

Image: Octopi Media.

They are also storylines that Jett needs to contend with as he attempts to remind everyone that there is one rider at the top, and that the throne belongs to him alone. So, what should we expect from Lawrence in his racing return, then? The 450MX record tells us a pretty clear picture, and I think it’s right to assume more of the same, until demonstrably proven otherwise.

Could the 2023 and 2025 title-winner take some time and patience to race himself back into true form? That’s a possibility. And if that is indeed the case, his aforementioned rivals will indeed pounce on the moment to attack – and undoubtedly take the opportunity to talk about it in the aftermath as well. You know Deegan would.

But when it’s all said and done, if Jett makes all 11 rounds and 22 motos, it’s hard to go past another title for the Australian, who has proven to be virtually untouchable in 450MX, and will look to keep that narrative going in this year’s Pro Motocross Championship. We’re ready for the gates to drop.