Breaking down expectations heading into the season-opener.
It’s that time of year, with the Pro Motocross portion of the 2026 Monster Energy SMX World Championship set to commence as the 11-round outdoor series travels throughout the United States from May through August. Three Things takes a look at the current form of select riders prior to the gates dropping this Saturday at Fox Raceway.
The premier class landscape
This begins with the return of defending 450MX champion Jett Lawrence, who has been sidelined for the past five months after sustaining a serious foot and ankle injury in late December. Entering Fox Raceway, there has been relatively little insight into his preparation, with much of the discussion surrounding Lawrence coming from outside voices rather than the Honda HRC Progressive rider himself. As a result, the true picture will only become clear once the motos are completed at Pala. Two-time 250MX champion Haiden Deegan also enters the premier class full-time and is already commanding attention, with significant expectations surrounding the 20-year-old. A potential Jett versus Deegan rivalry has generated considerable hype, although that assumes Deegan can immediately overcome the likes of Hunter Lawrence, Eli Tomac, Chase Sexton, Jorge Prado, and Justin Cooper, all of whom arrive as genuine contenders. Add former 450MX champion Dylan Ferrandis, alongside Justin Barcia, RJ Hampshire, Aaron Plessinger, and Cooper Webb to the equation, and all indications point toward a stacked 450MX field with no shortage of storylines throughout the summer.
A new champion in 250MX
The 250MX category shapes as one of the most intriguing storylines of the season, marking the first time in six years that neither a Lawrence nor a Deegan will be crowned champion. At times, a class opens completely up, and in 2026, the opportunity is there for a new rider to take control and establish themselves at the top. There’s a long list of riders who have spent recent years competing in the shadow of the Lawrence and Deegan era, and who now enter the season determined to secure a first number one plate of their own. Jo Shimoda, Levi Kitchen, and Chance Hymas headline that group, while teenage sensation Cole Davies could translate his Supercross form outdoors and potentially usher in a new era of dominance across both disciplines. Then there’s Seth Hammaker, Michael Mosiman, Austin Forkner, and Nate Thrasher, all capable of running at the front on any given weekend, further highlighting the depth of the division in 2026. One of the clearest indicators of parity in a class is fluctuating moto results, and that’s exactly what this summer appears set to deliver. Across 11 rounds and 22 motos, a new champion will emerge, and there are realistically between five and 10 riders entering the season believing they can be that rider.
The underrated stars
Who enters round one – and the season itself – as underdogs? Two names come to mind, both of whom have already been mentioned and deserve serious consideration in context: Jorge Prado in 450MX and Cole Davies in 250MX. The reason the underrated label applies is that both riders possess genuine championship-winning potential. So much attention in 450MX is centred around Jett Lawrence and Haiden Deegan that it’s easy to overlook Prado being a multi-time MXGP world champion who knows exactly what it takes to win races and titles. Back aboard a Red Bull KTM this year, the Spaniard showed significant improvement throughout Supercross, which presents a daunting prospect for the competition entering the outdoor season. As for Davies, his current outdoor moto results read 23-23-1-17, making him somewhat difficult to assess entering a full Pro Motocross campaign. The reality, however, is that he’s equipped with the benchmark package in the category through the Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing program, with their YZ250F’s horsepower excelling outdoors. The ingredients are there for the New Zealander to emerge as the next dominant force in Pro Motocross – and potentially accelerate that timeline quicker than expected. Lastly, 2024 450MX champion Chase Sexton also deserves mention, given his proven outdoor ability. Questions remain surrounding how he and the Monster Energy Kawasaki KX450SR package will translate in motocross conditions, although his victory at the Salt Lake City Supercross finale was undoubtedly a confidence boost entering the summer.



