With the opening three rounds of Monster Energy Supercross 2026 in California now complete, an assortment of pivotal storylines are already beginning to take shape. In this edition of Countdown, MotoOnline details the emerging trends that we’ve identified through January.

Image: Octopi Media.

8. Ducati and Triumph’s opening three 450SX races:
It’s been a reasonable start for 450SX newcomers Ducati and Triumph, with Troy Lee Designs Red Bull Ducati Factory Racing’s Dylan Ferrandis flying the flag solo after Justin Barcia’s frightening incident at A1. Ferrandis has finished with 9-9-11 scores over the first three races, recently commenting that the Desmo450 MX is in a competitive position, and that it’s up to him to add the rest. The Frenchman is roughly where he was last year as part of the Phoenix Racing Honda team, so it’ll be interesting to see if this Ducati shift can legitimately yield a climb up the results sheet. As for Triumph Factory Racing, it’s a double debut under the British manufacturer’s awning, with Austin Forker having completed the first three 450SX events of his career this year. He’s made the main at two of three rounds – he sat out San Diego due to a crash in qualifying – and has recorded 15-17 results across each of the Anaheims. There is a bit to digest there for both Forkner and the team, so look for improvements as both of their respective experience builds in the premier division over the next few races at least.

7. KTM switch does wonders for Prado:
This is one of the primary stories from the opening three rounds, with Jorge Prado being significantly better onboard the KTM 450 SX-F FACTORY EDITION. There is enough evidence – even after three rounds – to suggest that he and the Monster Energy Kawasaki KX450SR were not a match, and this is highlighted by how much better he has been from the outset with Red Bull KTM. Two heat race wins, top 10 qualifying times, and a podium at A1 is as much of a dream start as what could’ve been expected for the pairing, and what was even more encouraging was his ability to climb through the field at Anaheim 2 to finish in P7. The important thing now is for Prado and the team to stay grounded, because if he can make all 17 rounds of Supercross this year and gain the experience from being able to do so, then all of a sudden his American adventure is right back on track – and 450SX wins could be on the horizon.

6. Kitchen’s train is off the tracks:
What is not on track is the Levi Kitchen train, with the Washington native not having made it out of the first turn cleanly in any of the three 250SX West main events, and now faces a points deficit that is likely insurmountable. From the outside looking in, it seems the pressure of being a title contender has weighed heavily on the number 47, especially as the relationship with reigning 250SX West class champion Haiden Deegan has completely broken down after their run-in at the St. Louis SMX Playoff race last year. The speed is there, as shown by his P1 in qualifying at A1. He then qualified second at San Diego and Anaheim 2, but when it comes time for the gates to drop – especially in the main events – it’s not been going to plan. The Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki team needs to leave one-lap pace alone, because it’s well and truly there, and start solving the first corner of the main event. If they can get that sorted, then Levi should be able to return to his front-running finishes, although it does appear that the damage has already been done – at least title-wise – in 2026.

Image: Octopi Media.

5. Double podiums for Hunter Lawrence:
We were in a weird place with Hunter Lawrence entering the 2026 Supercross season, and in a way, we’re glad that we no longer are. The predicament was that the elder Lawrence brother had shown race-winning and title-contending potential in both the Monster Energy SMX World Championship post-season and Pro Motocross in the premier class, although that was yet to translate to the same 450SX success. Well, two second-place finishes at San Diego and A2 have confirmed his capabilities indoors, with a maiden main event win seemingly not too far away. In addition, he is now ranked second overall thanks to his 4-2-2 scores, only eight points behind series leader Eli Tomac (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing). Don’t sleep on Hunter Lawrence as he is very crafty, and is a rider who does not give an inch, under any circumstance, on the race track. Combine this with his stoic demeanour and these two things bode well across a 17-round series.

4. Deegan dominance in 250SX West:
The point-blank fact about defending 250SX West champion Haiden Deegan is that his Supercross skills are much improved in 2026, which is strange to say given he claimed the title last year. But what we’re seeing is a more complete rider in the stadiums – one that has made each part of the track a strong-suit, which includes better positioning once the gate drops, and also harnessing the delivery of his ultra-aggressive style. It doesn’t look like he has overridden any of the circuits this year, which is telling given A1’s slick surface. You can tell that he went to work over the off-season to build on his indoor skillset, which you have to tip the cap to, because a rider of his calibre could easily rest on his laurels. In addition, Max Anstie, as shown over the last two years, is a highly-capable Supercross rider, although Deegan disposed of the number 61 with relative ease at San Diego and A2. That says pretty much everything there is to say about the 20-year-old, who looks more and more poised for his premier class transfer every time he’s on the bike.

3. Struggles for defending 450SX champion Webb:
The start to Cooper Webb’s 2026 450SX title-defense has been turbulent, with a sequence of uncharacteristic mistakes seeing him 24 markers down on Tomac after three rounds. It’s not a disaster, although it for sure isn’t an ideal way to start, with Webb appearing dejected following a P5 result at A2 on Saturday night. He is another rider who has speed at the moment, and just needs to tighten up his main event performance if he is to claw back the points deficit at the front of the field. The thing about these championships is they typically run on momentum, and when either luck or momentum is not on your side, that’s when to minimize the points lost during this time. There’ll likely be a stage this season where Tomac has his challenges, and Webb could catch fire, although again, you don’t want to concede too many points while your chips are down. It becomes more about consolidation, so when it’s time to strike, a serious impact on the overall points tally can be launched.

Image: Octopi Media.

2. Chase delivers for Kawasaki:
Right or wrong, there was a lot of pressure and expectation on new Monster Energy Kawasaki recruit Chase Sexton to start this year’s 450SX season, and Anaheim 1’s result, as well as San Diego, drew their share of criticism. A Pro Circuit-equipped overhaul between A1 and San Diego was good subject material to further the narrative of Sexton and his tendency to point a finger at the bike, while hitting the gate during San Diego’s main event put his concentration lapses in the spotlight once more. However, in true Sexton fashion, he overcame any negativity to put his KX450SR on top of the box at A2, and a race win in the premier class puts pretty much all questions to bed, given how difficult they are to come by. What we don’t know is whether this is a new-and-improved Sexton, or if it’s much the same story as before – ultra-fast, but prone to concentration dips and subsequent mistakes. More data is needed, but to capture a win at this stage in the season is a promising outcome entering the new relationship.

1. Early season of Tomac:
A new partnership that has produced nothing but success so far is Red Bull KTM and Eli Tomac, with the duo having raced to victory at A1 and San Diego, as well as finishing P3 at the second visit to Angel Stadium last Saturday. This has been a remarkable development, with team manager Ian Harrison admitting he has been ‘blown away’ by Tomac’s early-season performances. It’s no secret that the last couple of years have been tough on the Austrian manufacturer for a multitude of reasons, which must make this start with the Colorado icon all the more rewarding. The 33-year-old is synonymous with a no-fuss, all-business attitude, with Harrison going as far as saying that ‘when he needs help, he asks for it. If he doesn’t, he takes care of things.’ He is taking care of things indeed, with Tomac having raced to career wins number 54 and 55 to commence the 2026 Supercross campaign, and only getting stronger at this stage in his career. There was a time when exiting California was seen as one of Tomac’s main speed bumps, but as he has grown, these little kinks seem to have been ironed out. The number three is rolling right now, with the updated surroundings having indeed rejuvenated the two-time 450SX champion.