As the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross Championship heads into its final two rounds, we’re seeing the conclusion to several season-long storylines. We break down the unfolding trends in this edition of Q&A.

Q: Who is going to take this 450SX title?

A: While mathematically, four riders are still eligible to win it, it really is down to Jett Lawrence and Cooper Webb. And more specifically, it’s down to whether Jett Lawrence doesn’t throw it away. He’s established himself a 12-point lead in the championship which isn’t the comfiest lead, but it does afford him the opportunity to control his own destiny by clinching the title with two podiums – something Jett has accomplished nine times across 15 races this season. For Webb to win this title still, he essentially had to win out at two races that will be harder packed and thus feature surfaces Webb has not been particularly strong on of late. It’s not impossible for Webb to pull the magic rabbit out of his hat still and get it done, but it’s looking like this is Jett Lawrence’s title to lose with two races to go.

Q: Will the 250SX points leaders remain out front?

A: RJ Hampshire is two points up on Levi Kitchen in 250SX West while Tom Vialle is 15 points up on Haiden Deegan in 250SX East. One of those championships looks more open than the other, but the question marks surrounding Levi Kitchen’s health still remains. Last we saw of Kitchen was him crashing in Nashville, finishing P14, and then posting from the hospital bed that he’s okay but thought he had broken ribs. Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki say he’s fine and Kitchen has been on the bike since, but he may not be at 100%. This weekend’s Denver Supercross will be a huge tale in where this 250SX West title fight goes as it’s essentially a dead heat in points and this weekend could either open it up for Hampshire or flip it back in the favor of Kitchen. Either way, we’re probably going into the 250SX East/West Showdown at Salt Lake City with the closest title fight being 250SX West as Tom Vialle just needs P11 or better no matter what at the final round to be 250SX East champion.

Q: What have been the standout performances?

A: The standout performance nearly across the board has to go to Red Bull KTM’s Aaron Plessinger. His season unfortunately ended a few weeks back in Foxborough with a fractured elbow, but Plessinger was outstanding in the early part of the 450SX championship. He won the third round at San Diego for his first career victory and held the championship lead for a few weeks as the musical chairs behind him continued to shuffle. Everyone knew Plessinger had the speed to win on his night, but not many expected him to be a legitimate championship contender for as long as he was. With a free agency looming for Plessinger, Red Bull KTM saw plenty out of the Ohio-native before his injury to extend his contract into the 2025 season and keep the SuperMotocross cowboy in orange.

Q: Biggest surprise or disappointment this season?

A: While Aaron Plessinger was an eyebrow raiser in 450SX, Coty Schock had some eyes wide open in 250SX. After being dropped late by Phoenix Racing Honda in the offseason, the Muc-Off FXR ClubMX Yamaha team gave Schock and chance and fielded a fifth 250SX bike for him. Schock has been rock solid the whole season even through a broken collarbone that required surgery after the fourth round in Birmingham, and now he’s tied for third in 250SX East points with one round to go. No question he’s been the surprise of the year. As for disappointments, you’d likely have to pin it on Justin Barcia or Malcolm Stewart. These are two riders who have been battling well inside the top five in championships before and they sit P9 and P11 in 450SX standings, respectively, with two rounds to go. They both have been getting a bit better late in the year but being over 60 points behind P5 in the championship is certainly not where either rider envisioned themselves.

Q: What does this 2024 Supercross season tell us about the future of 450SX?

A: Well if Jett Lawrence claims this 450SX title as a rookie against this depth of field, look out. We are a few years away from names like Eli Tomac, Jason Anderson, Justin Barcia, Malcolm Stewart, and maybe even Cooper Webb and Ken Roczen, all retiring. Lawrence is still just 20 years old and is in a position to really take over this sport in a big way. This was the year where the veterans needed to show Lawrence that this 450 class is not going to be as easy as the 250 class. But after Lawrence had a perfect season on a 450 in AMA Pro Motocross and won the SuperMotocross World Championship after that, all he’s done indoors is win nearly double the races anyone else has and seemed primed to become just the third ever 450SX champion. Time will tell if this form continues year after year, but right now it’s all pointing towards #18 being #1 for a while.

Q: Is the Monster Energy Pro Circuit Kawasaki curse real?

A: This was a question we answered at this exact same point in time last year and the answer then was “not likely”, but it somehow seems like this is turning into a “yes”. The team was three races away from maybe winning both 250SX titles and there’s a real chance they don’t win either of them. Cameron McAdoo had a freak crash at Nashville in qualifying that damaged his shoulder. He still made the main event that night but then collided with his 250SX West championship leading teammate Levi Kitchen early in the race and they both went down. McAdoo’s season was over four laps later when he pulled off the track while Kitchen watched his 15-point championship lead disappear to a two-point deficit behind RJ Hampshire. They have not won a 250SX championship since Justin Hill in 2017 and have seen nearly sure titles with Austin Forkner, Martin Davalos, Adam Cianciarulo, and more just disappear in the strangest ways. Curses may not be real, but Pro Circuit Kawasaki is on the oddest streak of bad luck this sport has maybe ever seen.